WCOOP, bad start, 2 interesting hands

So first of all I've played 5 events so far and have been eliminated within the first 15 minutes of when I got dealt my first hand in 4 of those events and bubbled the 5th, so not good (they were all big coolers or bad beats). Today I played the $320 no limit holdem ante up tournament and the $215 heads up tournament and both of my bust out hands were interesting.

First was the $320 holdem tournament. I began by opening to $50 in mid position with AK, the button (a bad player) called and the sb 3-bet to 250, we both called. The flop came KQ8 rainbow and the sb bet out like 350 into something like an 850 pot. I called and the sb folded. The turn is a 4 and he bets about half the pot. I call again and the river is a 2. At this point my opponent shoves all-in for about the size of the pot. Now, I only have top pair, top kicker, but think about what my opponent can have. I basically only lose to a set here. KQ is kinda possible but very rare (he would have needed to 3-bet preflop with it). Any other 2 pair is basically never. There are no straights or flushes possible. What he has done here is what we call polarizing his range. This simply means he either has a nut hand (in this case, a set) or is bluffing. If we count the number of nut hand combos there are, we see there is only 1 KK combo (2 Ks are out of the deck already), 3 QQ combos, and as for 88, 44, 22, those are going to be so rare that we'll give 1 combo for all of those combined and 1 more for KQ. That gives us about 6 combos that beats me. Since I'm getting about 2-1 on a call, he only needs to have 3 bluff combos in his range to make this a profitable call. When the number of bluff combos required is that small, you don't really have to think about what hands he might be bluffing with, just assume you have to call. I called and he turned over QQ, so I busted in that but it was just an unlucky spot.

My other bust out hand for the day was in the $215 heads up tournament. Going into the match I saw my opponent was a consistent winning player in low stakes tournaments. He kept having the nuts and developed a 2-1 chip lead on me when the following hand arose. I was dealt Td 4d on the button and min raised to 120, he called. The flop came Ac Ad 2d, he checked, I bet 120, and he raised to about 400, I called. The turn was a 6d and he moved all in for like 2000 into a 1040 pot. At this point I know in my head that I am like never folding but decided to stop and think for a second because I think it is closer then most people would think. Based on the way the match had played out up to this point, I felt like he was basically never going to be bluffing here. He hadn't made any big bluffs yet and has been playing very passively. Now if you are playing a good player, they will use their image (or at least might) but I didn't think he was ever going to. Additionally, think about if he has Ax. A naked A doesn't really get called by worse (except a worse A) or get better hands to fold. For this reason, it didn't make much sense for him to be shoving Ax. That brings his range to be boats and flushes. If that was his full range and I didn't believe he was bluffing this would be a very very close spot. (By the way, shoving a boat here isn't a bad play, my range after calling the check raise and then having the flush card hit is very strong and you'd hate to let me not go broke with Ax or a low flush by having a 4th diamond hit on the river). However, even though shoving Ax doesn't make sense, I was under the impression that my opponent wasn't very good and was capable of shoving Ax for one of two reasons: 1, he is protecting against a 4th diamond or 2, he is frustrated by the flush card hitting and so he just shoved. With this in mind, I called and he turned over some weak A and rivered a boat to send me to the rail.

Tomorrow I'll be playing the $265 NLHE 6-max Knockout and the $215 Razz. Hopefully I turn this around.

I didn't get in as many 45 mans as I wanted, but that tends to happen when you are running really bad (2nd graph). This is the longest losing streak by number of games for 45 mans, o well, not a big deal. From the 24th to the 30th I have a bet with some guy (forgot his name) for $1k on playing 400 $45 mans (100 $12s, $27s, $38s, $60s) in 1 week, taking the roi of each and taking $12roi + 2*$27 roi + 3*$38roi + 4*$60 roi, bigger number wins. Hopefully I run better during that bet.

The other graph is posted cause it's pretty funny. It's a player I play with a lot. He is close to finishing an incredible task over a shit load of games. I'm rooting for him.

Just for fun, the second is my 45 and 180 man sngs overall the first is when MI_turtle was registered in it with me. Lol, Nick always crushes me.

A Challenge to anybody

I put up the following on 2+2:

I'll offer anybody the following bet for 45 man turbo sngs on stars:

Over the course of 1 week, we play a minimum of 100 45 man turbos on stars of each stake, $12, $27, $38, $60 (100 EACH). If you don't get at least 100 games of any stake, the difference will all be counted as losses. At the end, we take the roi for each and add them up, higher number wins. If you play more than 100 games of a stake that's ok, just take that roi of ALL the games, as long as you play at least 100. We'll use sharkscope to determine results, it has final say. I'll do it on any week of July as long as it ends by the 30th.

I'll bet anybody between $500 and $1000. If more then 1 person wants to accept I am not going to have more then 1 going on at the same time unless it's a pool where everybody participating is against each other.

First losing month of the year

As the name implies, June was my first losing month of the year. That really sucks considering I played over 80,000 hands. I didn't lose much, basically the entire month I was never really up or down much which was really frustrating since I played so much.

Last night a friend of mine that has been trying $12 45 and 180 mans on stars claimed that somebody 6 tabling $12 135 mans on rush could make more than me playing as many tables as I wanted of $12 45 and 180 mans. He doesn't have the money to bet, but I told him if at any point in his life he wants to bet me on that, he can have anybody in the world play for him against me playing 20+ tables at a time in 45/180 mans and I'll be very confident. He has also been doubting that 15-20% roi is really attainable in those while playing lots of games at a time. At this point I've only played 259, always while in a ton of other games, and have 31% roi in them. The image shows all my 45 mans ($12, $27, $38, $60) and that has an average roi of 23%. Obviously the sample is really small but for fun I think I'm gonna play a ton of these $12 games over like the next week or something and see where I'm at. I'll let you know how it goes (though I might just go back to my normal routine of playing bigger and making more).

Becoming a Supernova

As you can see from my profile pic change, I became a Supernova a couple nights ago. That should be the last time I'm not a Supernova for a very long time (or Supernova Elite). This month has been pretty awful pokerwise. It seems like every time I get anything going I just run bad again shortly. I'm only down about $1000 on the month but that's largely thanks to bonuses and even that is really shitty considering how much I've played. The graph on the right shows my lifetime mtt sngs (45 mans and 180 mans) and you can see the run I'm on in those is pretty depressing. I've also been playing a lot of $104 and $52 double or nothings and not running well. I never really get discourage though. I've been on lots of downswings over my career (many much bigger than this one so far) and it always turns around sooner or later.

Grinding mtt sngs

I've been playing a lot of mtt sngs the last few days, 25 tabling $12 and $36 180 mans, and $27, $38, and $60 45 mans. As you can see from my graph, I've had a lot of success in these games. I actually challenged MI_turtle to a bet for the mtt leaderboard next month but he couldn't do it until August or September, which is when I go back to school.

On another note, I bought a piece of Jorj95's action at the series for $1500 (I already had $1k of him in the $50k 8-game). So hopefully he dominates.

How bad can I run in the 8-game?

The $320 8-game is one of my favorite tournaments of the year cause I loving playing mixed games and SCOOP and WCOOP is the only time you can play a decent 8-game tournament. In this one I somehow managed to go out of both the $320 and the $33 in an hour. I spent the morning playing $88 and $44 8-game satellite turbos for fun and lost 100% of them. Then the tournament started and I had this crazy guy on my left in the $320, he was like the worst. He played every pot, 3 betting and 4 betting with no reasoning behind any of his moves. I lost 2 big pots to him in a row in Omaha 8 when I got AAxx and opened, he 3 bet me, I called it came like 55J and I check called him, turn K and I check called him again, knowing he would continue betting with absolute air and the river was a 5 and I put in a check raise, knowing he was calling with any pair but he had a 5. the very next hand I got AAxx again and flopped top set for the nuts in a 3 way pot and we began building with this crazy guy. There was another low card and I didn't have a low draw but it was worth it with this guy. We capped it on the flop and turn and on the river the low hit and a 3rd club hit (the 2nd club came on the turn) and the crazy guy had a like 5c 6c drawing to a horrible horrible low and nothing else and making a flush to beat me. Then Stud 8 came and I made 2c 3c 4c 5c on the first 4 cards and capped it off on both 4th and 5th street against the guy but never improved the entire hand. He won with aces which I was like a 3-1 favorite against. A few hands later I got 4h 5c 8c 6c Kc 4c which me and that guy had been betting aggressively the whole way. Now I have the K high flush, only clubs showing, and the low draw and he STILL caps it with me with only trips. He rivers a boat and I don't make a low so I lost that pot. Then no-limit holdem came and the hijack opened for 150, cutoff called, I 3 bet to 669 in the sb with AK, the cutoff called, the flop was like 4 8 9 and I had to shove my 1900 into like 1500 pot and he snap called with 33 and beat me. That was like the sickest tournament ever. The $33 went about the same way.

Jorj95 takes 6 deep runs in 2 days with 4 final tables

I just thought I'd mention that last night Jorj95 got 2nd in the $2100 buy in stud 8 event (120 players), while also getting 3rd in the $22 stud 8 event (2854 players), while also finishing 8th in the $1050 2-7 tripple draw event ( 140 players), pretty sick guy. Actually on Monday's events he also took 34th in the $2100 holdem 2-day event (1088 players), 15th in the $1575 PLHE/PLO event (289 players), and 8th in the $162 PLHE/PLO event (1440 players). Taking 2nd in the $22 was another sick guy, Andy McLEOD. Jorj95 and McLEOD have now been at 2 final tables together this SCOOP (they both final tabled the $5200 Omaha 8) and were sitting next to each other for awhile in a big mixed holdem event.

2 deep runs early in SCOOP, exhausted already, still got almost 2 weeks

So SCOOP started on Sunday. Up to this point I played the $215 6-max holdem, $215 holdem, $55 rebuy 6-max holdem, and $109 rebuy PLO turbo. One of the things that has been kinda hanging over me up to this point was that I've never made a deep run in any SCOOP or WCOOP events. I said I was going to make several deep runs this year and have bets on myself to win at least 1 event (with odds of course). In the opening event, the $215 6-max holdem I had a good chance to go deep. Unfortunately a hand came up where I had 140k and got a guy with 100k in with my AKs against his 99 preflop. It was kinda sick to get those stacks in preflop since it was like 90bb but there wasn't anything I could do. With 2 limpers, the aggressive button raised it and I made a standard good sizes 3bet from the bb and he shoved and it's an easy call for me. I lost that one and never recovered and went out like 8-9 hours into the tournament for like a $500something cash. Then I had to drive back to U of I, didn't get to bed until like 1am, and had to get up at 7:30 for school (to do homework due later that morning, I'm a procrastinator, but I got it done). Then yesterday I started the $55 rebuy at 1pm. I only put in 1 buy in and 1 add on (for $105). I was once against super sharp, making moves at all the right times, had very good feels for all my opponents, and was deeply focused. After about 12 hours of play I started get super super tired, both physically and mentally. I had never been in any trouble with my stack the entire tournament and then suddenly a stretch of hands came where I seemed to just be getting owned. Right now I really can't tell you if I was still playing well or not, I'll have to look back at the hands at some point, but a really good player who I have a lot of respect for told me there was a hand where he didn't like my play. I was to tired to think about it at the time but I'll look at it later. Anyway, I went out in 28th place for a $2550 profit. It's a reasonable score but a massive disappointment. $2500 doesn't change anything for me. My life is like 99.9% the same as if I had won $0. I played a TON of interesting hands during the tournament and will hopefully post some at some point. At 4pm today is the $162 heads up and I think I'm going to skip the $109 holdem at 7pm just because I'm so tired and the tournament will last like 15 hours.

SCOOP Schedule

The Spring Championship of Online Poker series is running May 2nd through May 16th on Pokerstars. They did a great job putting the series during my finals but that shouldn't stop me from being in a lot of events. SCOOP and WCOOP are generally less profitable times then the rest of the year because I get in way way way less games. While I am very comfortable and confident 12 tabling $100 sngs, my deep stack mtt game drops pretty big when I'm in too many games. The style that I take on in these mtts is one of playing a ton of hands (especially when antes kick in) and getting into a lot of tricky spots. Because of this, I have to be very aware of what is going on and have a very good feel for my opponents. While you still need to be aware and have a feel for your opponents in the sngs, you basically never get into really tricky spots. The stacks are so shallow that the right play is usually pretty straightforward and often just a decision to either shove or fold. I feel like I've gotten really unlucky in both SCOOP and WCOOP up to this point and really wanna get a title so as always, I'll be playing in every event I can:

May 2nd:
1: $215 NLHE 6-max ($1 million guaranteed)
2: $215 NLHE ($2 million guaranteed)

May 3rd:
5: $109 PLO 1 rebuy/1 addon turbo ($100k guaranteed)

May 4th:
7: $162 NLHE Heads-up ($250k guaranteed)
8: $109 NLHE ($200k guaranteed)

May 5th:
German Final, well see if I'm back in time for 9: $215 Mixed Holdem 6-max ($200k guaranteed)

May 6th:
11: $215 PLO Heads-Up ($100k guaranteed)

May 7th:
14: $55 FLO H/L (maybe, $50k guaranteed)
15: $162 NLHE 2x chance turbo ($500k guaranteed)

May 8th:
16: $215 NLHE shootout ($150k guaranteed)
18: $215 FLHE ($100k guaranteed)

May 9th:
I have 2 finals on the 10th, so I probably won't play any events, but I might not be able to resist the noon event 19: $215 NLHE big antes ($750k guaranteed)

May 10th:
2 finals

May 11:
24: $109 TD 2-7 ($50k guaranteed)

May 12:
last final, probably no events

May 13:
29: $320 8-Game ($150k guaranteed)
30: $109 PLO H/L ($150k guaranteed)

May 14:
Probably no events

May 15:
34: $530 PLO 6-max ($250k guaranteed)
35: $270 NLHE Heads-Up ($250k guaranteed)
36: $215 HORSE ($100k guaranteed)

May 16:
37: $215 NLHE ($750k guaranteed)
38: $1050 Main Event ($3 Million guaranteed)

Along with all of those I'll be in the lower buy-ins as well. I'm excited about all of them but particularly excited to play the PLO events (as I have worked hard on PLO over the last few months and am a million times better) and am always excited to play the 8-Game and the $1050 main event. My mtt game has come a very long way since the last series and I expect to make actually a few deep runs. Hopefully I have time to get in a ton of sngs too.

Just bought 2% of Jorj95's action in the $50k 8-game

As you can gather from the title, I just bought 2% of Jorj95's action for the $50k 8-Game at the series. He is looking to sell up to half his action and I think it's a good investment. That is a ridiculously strong tournament but he is a phenomenal player at every game. I normally cheer for Phil Ivey but GO JORJ95!!!

I haven't had the time to play as much as I'd like lately but I've been getting in a decent number of hands. I was on a pretty bad run but won just about all of it back over the last couple days.

Not a good start to April. I played 49 $60 sngs and lost $753. The graph on bottom shows my Result - Expectation on chip EV on 2 way preflop all-ins today. As you can see, I lost a lot of all-ins (at one point I lost 17 in a row). The graph on the top shows the same stat over my last 677 preflop 2-way all-ins in $60 sngs. I'm not sure how many games that is, but I'd guess around 1500.

This graph shows my (Resulting Chips in the Pot) - (Tournament Chip Equity in the Pot) for my last about 1400 all-ins in hyper turbos. I'm running pretty bad.

Spring Break, lots of hyper turbos, big swings

My spring break is coming to a close so I figured I'd show how I did. The first several days I had a lot of work to do and didn't play much. Over the last few days Jorj95 wasn't really playing so I decided to get in some hyper-turbo time. It has been a really long time since I put in a lot of hours in those games and I had to get used to the big swings again pretty quickly. As you can see from the graph, I started out good. Basically the entire downswing was today, I ran really badly. This type of downswing is normal though for these games. Back when the game was unraked you didn't get this type of downswing often though (I paid over $3100 in rake during these games). It all makes me miss the days of unraked hyper-turbos. What was really sick about today was I think there were some really bad players. There were a lot of just big mistakes people were making, especially in the bubble situations. I did pick up 18,000 VPPs which is pretty good. Since I'm only a platinum star that equates to around 45,000 FPP, which is worth about $720. I think it's really important to be a supernova elite if you are going to play a lot of these. An elite woulda earned around 90,000 FPPs for about $1440, which is a really large chunk of rake-back.

I'll also mentioned that I played a lot of hands over the last few days. Since the 25th (the last 3 days) I've played 21130 hands, got quads 15 times, a striaghtflush, and my 3rd royal flush (I've played like half a million hands and only have 3).

I also bought in for my $1,000,000th dollar on Pokerstars today.

I haven't decided what my schedule is for tomorrow yet (Sunday). I have a lot of homework to do and then we'll see. I'll either play the Sunday millions or keep trying to grind hyper-turbos. Peace.

First Blog

Hey, so I decided to start a blog to track my results and talk about other things both poker and non-poker related. This first one is going to be pretty quick I think. For those of you that can't tell, I'm "c Dannon s" (without the " ") at pokerstars.com. Pokerstars is by a very wide margin the best poker site to play on. I have played on full tilt and along with having $1300 stolen from me by the site, the service was about as frustrating as could be. If you send them an email about your lost money, it takes about a week to get a reply and it's basically the same reply every time you talk to them. It's just some asshole who has know idea what is going on because the last email was a week ago so he just copy and pastes the standard bullshit to you. It's not like that with Pokerstars. If you send them an email, you almost always get a reply within the hour (and sometimes within the minute).

So last year was my first breakout year in poker. I made a lot more than the tracking sites suggest for lots of reasons. This year, my goal is to make $70k. I think I am currently up around like $16k right now. I also think I have been overall unlucky during the year, but I guess everybody thinks that.

I've been playing mostly 180 mans and 45 mans of every buy-in, playing anywhere between 10-25 tables at a time. I have played a bit of the cash games (almost all 6 max plo), mtts, and hyper-turbos. For those of you that don't know, I used to be a hyper-turbo reg. Back in the time before sharkscope gave hyper-turbos its own category and before they were even raked, I used to play about 60 and hour at every buy-in from $22 up through $128. Back then there were only 3 guys who were able to do that for some real profit, me, muttern3k, and of course, Jorj95. What was sick was I think I played the least number per hour of us. For all his hyper0turbo talents I think muttern3k might be a loser in regular poker (although I definitely could be wrong on that). One guy who is certainly not a loser in regular poker is Jorj95, and there was also no question that he was the best hyper-turbo player. The 3 of us played a ton of hands against eachother and my head to head hands against them went basically dead even. After hyper-turbos started getting raked I stopped being a reg. While Jorj95 is in there killing everybody it's basically impossible to be a good winner in that game anymore. If you are going to play it regularly seriously, be prepared for enormous swings and tiny ROI. Being a nova-elite would be an ENORMOUS help. I still play them occasionally when I'm bored or don't have much time, but that's about it.

I think I'll end this blog here.

c Dannon s